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Stig



Joined: 17 Dec 2003
Posts: 4515

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:17 pm    Post subject: Brexit Reply with quote

Not living in the UK I haven't kept up with it.

Can someone please give me a summary of what has happened, where we are now, and how it's going to play out ?

Thanks.
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Chubby



Joined: 18 Dec 2003
Posts: 3685

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:49 pm    Post subject: Re: Brexit Reply with quote

Stig wrote:
Not living in the UK I haven't kept up with it.

Can someone please give me a summary of what has happened, where we are now, and how it's going to play out ?

Thanks.


It’s FUBAR and will lead the the collapse of possibly the worst premiership this country has witnessed, certainly in my lifetime anyway. Theresa May makes Gordon Brown appear gloriously competent.

Nobody agrees what a good Brexit looks like. Still think it will not happen.
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Southern Red



Joined: 08 May 2010
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Location: Haywards Heath

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A can has been opened and worms are everywhere...

As a leave voter id admit it hasn't been a great start. Mainly 'coz I believe the government has made an absolute mess of it and the opposition are equally as incompetent, giving the EU all the cards.

I'd stand by my vote, but I didn't see the need rush to invoke article 50. We should have got a plan together for leaving so transition would've been as smooth as possible. We should have healed the toxic divide in the country before moving forward with it. The government acted under pressure from the people who ran away from their responsiblies (high profile leavers) and pressure from both sides have weakend our hand in any negotiations.

I know many remainers would say "I told you so" but nobody could have predicted the utter incompetence of our politicians.
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Chubby



Joined: 18 Dec 2003
Posts: 3685

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Southern Red wrote:
A can has been opened and worms are everywhere...

As a leave voter id admit it hasn't been a great start. Mainly 'coz I believe the government has made an absolute mess of it and the opposition are equally as incompetent, giving the EU all the cards.

I'd stand by my vote, but I didn't see the need rush to invoke article 50. We should have got a plan together for leaving so transition would've been as smooth as possible. We should have healed the toxic divide in the country before moving forward with it. The government acted under pressure from the people who ran away from their responsiblies (high profile leavers) and pressure from both sides have weakend our hand in any negotiations.

I know many remainers would say "I told you so" but nobody could have predicted the utter incompetence of our politicians.


I agree with nearly all of that, apart from the the last sentence. It was always going to be chaotic and people in the know predicted it, we were told not to listen to them. The only party that could have delivered Brexit was UKIP, not because they are in any way competent or desirable, but they at least had a common view of what Brexit meant. The Tories and Labour are utterly split and totally incoherent.

Tories will bring down their PM, they may even split their party completely. A GE will be called and Labour will do a 180 and become the party of remain to hoover up the remain vote. We will end up staying in the EU and have the most left wing government we’ve experienced, but it will be brief as nobody wants to live in the 1950’s and have their piss and wind nationalised.
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Jarzinio



Joined: 16 Apr 2009
Posts: 855
Location: Manchesterish

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The more pissed I get the more sense the arguments make Rolling Eyes
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Southern Red



Joined: 08 May 2010
Posts: 2438
Location: Haywards Heath

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chubby wrote:
Tories will bring down their PM, they may even split their party completely. A GE will be called and Labour will do a 180 and become the party of remain to hoover up the remain vote. We will end up staying in the EU and have the most left wing government we’ve experienced, but it will be brief as nobody wants to live in the 1950’s and have their piss and wind nationalised.

Although I am very stubborn and won't be convinced I was wrong to vote the way I did, the make up of our current political parties concerns me more than the EU ever did. Right now I wouldn't protest staying in the EU if it meant we could sort our shit out at home.
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Chubby



Joined: 18 Dec 2003
Posts: 3685

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like politics, I follow it quite closely but I’m not a habitual voter for one party or another. I always feel that referendums are what happens when politicians fail to do their jobs properly, or are not brave enough to take the decisions that need taking.

Cameron fucked us all by going to the people on the EU, I didn’t get the sense that people wanted or needed a vote on EU membership. He did so to kill off the 40 hardline Eurosceptics, his hubris made him think he was unbeatable. He fucked himself, he fucked us all.

The parties themselves didn’t take a position, as a result the people left to deal with Brexit were a mixed bunch of believers and non-believers. There is no plan that can satisfy them all so a vote of no confidence is guaranteed. Then the opposition via opportunism will take an EU position, claim it’s the only option to save the economy, jobs etc and the last two and a half years will have been for nothing.
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Zoolander



Joined: 06 Mar 2004
Posts: 5945
Location: Duck Fat City Limits

PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was in Germany for work last week and it might be interesting to get a view from my colleagues.

1) The EU was never going to let the UK leave without as much trouble and fractiousness as possible. Turkey's don't vote for Christmas and if the UK can leave and enjoy a healthy trading partnership with the EU what is to stop anyone other member state doing it.

2) It's only the little countries that care. Germany is desperate for a deal of some sort, why would they not want to trade openly with us we are the two largest economies in Europe but for Belgium, a state that would not exist without the EU, the EU has become a national security blanket more important to them than membership of NATO or the UN.

3) It's getting boring isn't it, it's on TV almost every night, the leave side should have had a better plan and the EU should have developed a plan for this eventuality, after all the UK are not the first to debate leaving.

All of these were conversations held with German colleagues who for the most part are senior managers/directors in a world wide business that turns over, over half a billion Euros.

I have to say I found their attitude very refreshing and positive, life will go on, trade will continue and the planes will still fly was the overriding message I got.

The negativity only comes from the UK media, the tiny percentage of rabid remain voters who seem incapable of rational debate on the subject and the powers that be at EU HQ because it simply is not in their long term interest to let the UK get a good deal.

I am glad we got a chance to have a vote, because we'd never been given that opportunity previously, not in the lifetime of anyone under 55 in any case.

I was surprised by the result and knew immediately that chaos would ensue, as Chubby has said none of the main stream parties are capable of delivering Brexit because they are all too divided on the subject.

No one knows what will happen when we leave but by the same token no one knows what the EU will like in 10 years time, so either course was a journey into the unknown. I am sure that Mr Major had no idea that when he signed the Maastrict agreement he was committing us to an EU army, eastern expansionism (something the EU actually promised it would not do) etc.

We couldn't have foreseen the Ukraine and Romania being members back in the 90's so what's to say with the EU's expansion plans Israel or Morocco won't be next? Where does the EU want to stop? Why does it need to grow? I though it was only ponzi schemes, & pyramid sales that needed new members constantly and at the same time promised everyone that you'll get more out than you ever put it?
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m42her



Joined: 17 Dec 2003
Posts: 2083

PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The way the vote was conducted was the whole issue - nobody knew what 'leaving' would practically look like because it hadn't been considered.

Probably because Cameron was so confident of it not being needed to be considered.

Agree with Zoo that it was something that needed to be done, but the way it was done fucked everyone.

What if there were remain voters who, if they'd been presented with what leave specifically looked like and meant, may have thought it's actually the better option and not the doomsday scenario that was presented in the campaigns?

What if a percentage of remain voters voted so purely owing to the lack of knowing specifically what the other option would look like?

Better the devil you know than the one you don't.

Likewise leave voters, when presented with the specifics of what a leave deal meant may have voted differently.

I wasn't old enough to truly understand the Good Friday agreement at the time beyond the fact that it meant bombs like the one that happened in Manchester would stop. That was the event that (naively at the time) drove it home for me personally because growing up as a kid in Manchester there was a certain sense of distance insulating us from the trouble.

But they presented the agreement to people and then asked them to vote on that specifically rather than vague concepts such as 'leave'.

So maybe that's where we need to look. Come up with a concrete agreement first and then let's ALL vote on something tangible.

That would still make the 2016 vote mean something - since we wouldn't have even considered the option to leave without it.

That way the politicians can keep their dick measuring contest for as long as they want and the rest of the country can get on with their daily lives and only become involved once they've decided who's won and want to show us.
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Chubby



Joined: 18 Dec 2003
Posts: 3685

PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It was always bonkers to think that the EU would allow us to leave with a deal that meant we could "have our cake and eat it" as the blond-haired fucktard suggested. The EU has to pull together to ensure the EU pr0ject remains on track and that any dissent within it's ranks is quietened with a very real world example of the consequences of leaving. We will be on the receiving end of that for decades.

There is no doubt that the EU needs to trade with the world's sixth largest economy, and in particular the Germans and the French will very much want this sorted. However, their trade with the rest of the EU is far higher, it should not be assumed that they will support a good deal with the UK.

It is short-sighted to argue the case for the Union that is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. If we leave the EU, managing to sort out the Northern Ireland border issue, then Scotland will very likely vote for independence. I'm pretty sure most people didn't vote for that.

No matter what get's agreed, the so-called Chequers proposal or no deal at all, a return to hard border in NI appears inevitable. I'm not sure however that this will signal a return to civil war, nobody sane wants that In Ireland or NI surely?

The only positive thing to come from it is we'll not win, and therefore not have to pay to host, Eurovision for at least a generation. Laughing

For all the reasons and challenges above I don't believe Brexit can happen, never mind will happen. I voted remain and I'm a democrat, but sometimes when the people speak and the answer they want is not deliverable then we should all revise the question, not so we can reverse the decision, but so we can re-affirm the mandate to continue with the insanity.
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Red Snow



Joined: 15 Aug 2004
Posts: 2194
Location: London

PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Southern Red wrote:
A can has been opened and worms are everywhere...

As a leave voter id admit it hasn't been a great start. Mainly 'coz I believe the government has made an absolute mess of it and the opposition are equally as incompetent, giving the EU all the cards.

I'd stand by my vote, but I didn't see the need rush to invoke article 50. We should have got a plan together for leaving so transition would've been as smooth as possible. We should have healed the toxic divide in the country before moving forward with it. The government acted under pressure from the people who ran away from their responsiblies (high profile leavers) and pressure from both sides have weakend our hand in any negotiations.

I know many remainers would say "I told you so" but nobody could have predicted the utter incompetence of our politicians.


SR, we haven't seen eye to eye on practically anything. I'm a left-wing eurosceptic remainer so I suspect we probably won't. But you're right about the toxic divide. At this point, given we have no conceivable say in the matter and most likely won't, how do you suggest we go about healing this divide? I would like to think conversation is the way forward but in the last 7 or so years, I have lost faith in public conversation entirely. This forum is the closest I come to actually discussing things with people I don't know. I think social media has had the most malign influence as well.

Any thoughts from anyone?

Chubby: i cannot see Labour turning to full Remainer mode, I imagine they're still too scared of alienating leavers. However, if what I'm seeing is right (Corbyn's popularity taking off, regardless of what the pointless polls say, even including people like Jim O'Neill, former Goldman Sachs head and errant Red Knight), Labour may win regardless.

I think the worst outcome is a hard brexit. I also think/pray/hope it won't happen.
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Chubby



Joined: 18 Dec 2003
Posts: 3685

PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Red Snow wrote:
I think social media has had the most malign influence as well.

Chubby: i cannot see Labour turning to full Remainer mode, I imagine they're still too scared of alienating leavers. However, if what I'm seeing is right (Corbyn's popularity taking off, regardless of what the pointless polls say, even including people like Jim O'Neill, former Goldman Sachs head and errant Red Knight), Labour may win regardless.



On Social Media, given that it's neither of those things in any case, I wholly agree. Public discourse has been stripped down to 140 characters of sound-bite, bile or other dark sides of our humanity. Twitter is the most useless platform for users, but for 3rd parties that want to control society and group-think they're enormously powerful. Google and search engines are also to blame for confirmation bias. Example, if you have a slight bias about the safety of vaccinations then you may type "are vaccinations safe?" - your bias will lead you to tons to websites confirming they are indeed safe, with no counter argument provided. Similarly, if your bias is your nervous you may type "are vaccinations dangerous?" - your bias will lead you to tons of websites confirming they are dangerous, with no counter argument provided. The point being that social media and search engines use algorithms to help you find what you're looking for, but it's answer is only ever as intelligent as the question being asked and it can't interpret nuance. We therefore start to exist in a more and more binary world, where nuance in debate is replaced by absolutes.

On Labour, I believe they would do a 180 if it meant they could get into power, as in opposition they can't change a thing - they have already said that "nothing is off the table" remember, which is telling. I believe that if they can prove their idea of government works for the many, not the few, then your average working class labour voter would forgive the change of direction. I have never voted Labour, but I would do if it meant the UK remained in the EU. I would hate myself for it and I would be much less well off in take-home pay because of it, but remaining in the EU for my kids' sake alone would make it a price worth paying, short term pain for long term gain. The only thing that makes me think it's challenging for Labour to remain in the EU is their desire to re-nationalise rail, water, gas and electricity - the EU don't like nation states impacting the free-market rules of the EU.
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Southern Red



Joined: 08 May 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Red Snow wrote:
Southern Red wrote:
A can has been opened and worms are everywhere...

As a leave voter id admit it hasn't been a great start. Mainly 'coz I believe the government has made an absolute mess of it and the opposition are equally as incompetent, giving the EU all the cards.

I'd stand by my vote, but I didn't see the need rush to invoke article 50. We should have got a plan together for leaving so transition would've been as smooth as possible. We should have healed the toxic divide in the country before moving forward with it. The government acted under pressure from the people who ran away from their responsiblies (high profile leavers) and pressure from both sides have weakend our hand in any negotiations.

I know many remainers would say "I told you so" but nobody could have predicted the utter incompetence of our politicians.


SR, we haven't seen eye to eye on practically anything. I'm a left-wing eurosceptic remainer so I suspect we probably won't. But you're right about the toxic divide. At this point, given we have no conceivable say in the matter and most likely won't, how do you suggest we go about healing this divide? I would like to think conversation is the way forward but in the last 7 or so years, I have lost faith in public conversation entirely. This forum is the closest I come to actually discussing things with people I don't know. I think social media has had the most malign influence as well


We might not agree on many things, but I'm certain we, and most other sane people want the same outcome. A prosperous society where we help those that need it and give opportunities for those who deserve it. The divide is caused by the politicians. Compromise will not win votes, so they fight each other with extremes. Gradually the left and right drift further apart until we have the situation we are currently in. And fighting each other rather than the arseholes who caused it.

To fix it... well I think we'd need a split in the 2 main party's. A party of labour/conservative rebels, where the left and right views could be centralised.
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cobhrambler



Joined: 09 May 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't slam door on the way out!
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68



Joined: 14 Oct 2004
Posts: 227

PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The debate to leave/remain two years ago was shambolic in the sense that there was no competent debate. On one side we had remainers predicting economic downturn, and on the other how economically the UK would prosper in negotiating its own trade deals. Some on the leave side were clever to play on people’s fears and emotions to make the EU as the bad boy, and how leaving would resolve all the issues in this country (the red bus, immigration, Turkey joining the EU, etc). Remain failed spectacularly in debating these issues.

Promises were made what will happen by leaving the EU. Both major parties are split on what Brexit looks like, and as a result the everyday running of the country is non-existent, everything is dominated by Brexit. Liam Fox and co said that leaving would be easy and new trade deals would be easy to sign up, quite the opposite has happened.

The UK currently has in excess of 700 international treaties/deals as a result of being member of a powerful negotiating trading bloc for circa 50 years, this is something that cannot be negotiated on an individual basis in a matter of a few years. This country will be poorer as a result of leaving.
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